Will Moore’s Law Lead To Economic Disaster?
Our economy is driven by Technology. Moore’s law states that every 18 months computing power will double. This is the result of improved manufacturing and improvements in technology.
A computer that cost $1,500 dollars today has over 12 times the processing power of a $1,500 computer built 10 years ago.
Moore’s law is the result of improved Silicon technology, and Silicon manufacturing technology will eventually reach it’s max ability to increase the number of transistors on one chip. It is rumored that silicon technology may reach it’s end as early as 2020. This may result in world-wide economic crisis, as a computer that costs $1,500 in 2020 will increase its cost with inflation yet will not increase in computing power.
As the number of hardware, software, and data continue to increase, we will need to continue to increase computing power. Not to do as such could result in economic disaster. Computing power could be increased by increasing the number of processors and hardware, which would result in a huge increase in the costs associated with computers.
The answer to this huge economic dilemma just might be “cloud computing”. Cloud computing allows an application to be “shared within a cloud of multiple computers or farms of computers”. Rather than having to improve the processing power of your desktop computer, you need only improve the connection speed at which you connect to the cloud.
The future may hold the use of practically no hardware, you would only need a keyboard, mouse, and monitor with a fast connection to the “cloud”.
Simply stated, the core of resolving this problem may also lie in our government improving the nations “Internet backbone” so that the our connections are based on fiber optics as opposed to cable which would result in efficient use of a “terminal node network” for the internet. Connection speed would eventually need to be equivelant to the same speed as if a terminal was connecting to its own processor/memory.
Will Moore’s Law Lead to Economic Delusions of Cloud Computing Granduer?
Futurists who believed that Moore’s Law would lead to economic disaster derived there belief from a basic physcis fact. The fact is that the number of transistors that could be placed onto a semiconductor is limited, and that eventually we would reach a point when a semiconductor could not be scalled further. Futurists failed to reconize some simple physics basics when reaching this analogy. Moore’s law is based upon scalling a semiconductor horizontally.
The IT industry scrambles. What should we do to overcomve the future of computing? Super Computer’s built in the cloud? Moore’s Law will end in 2020! We must build a processor based on the Quantum level. We must find a way to manipulate organic atoms to insure the future of our planet! We must contact an alien race with advanced technology to save us!